Hiccups multiply

A small maker of printed diaries in Alexandria plans a gift edition for the new year. New covers from the printer, a ribbon from a supplier in Cairo, a courier booked for the second week of December. On paper it all fits with a week to spare.

It never quite does. The printer is a few days behind. The ribbon arrives in the wrong width. The courier is fine, but the diaries are now ready on the day he was meant to collect them. Nothing goes badly wrong. Everything goes slightly wrong, and slightly wrong, three times over, is late.

This is not bad luck. It is arithmetic. When she made the plan she wrote down the likely version of each step, because the unlikely versions are impossible to list and a plan full of them would never get started. But every step she depends on is a separate chance for a small delay, and small delays add up rather than cancel out. Surprises in a project are rarely the pleasant kind.

Optimism is still the right starting point. Nobody begins anything without expecting it to work. What the optimist learns, after a few seasons, is not to count on the lucky break arriving on time.

What she can do is build something that benefits when luck does turn up. A list of customers who already know her. A diary that still sells in January. A second printer she trusts.

Betting on good fortune is a plan that only works once. Being ready to catch it works every year.