The record and the bet

Two people in Dubai are starting online shops for home goods this spring.

The first has studied everything that sold last year. She knows which shades moved, which prices worked, which posts were saved most. Her new range is built entirely from that record. It is careful and well researched, and it is a slightly better copy of what already exists. When tastes shift, as they always do, she will learn about it from her sales some months after everyone else.

The second has looked at none of it. He has a bold idea, a different way of selling, and a strong feeling that the old rules no longer apply. He has not asked why the last few shops that tried something similar closed, what their customers complained about, or which problems were never solved. He will discover each of them in turn, at full price.

Selling only from the record is one way to get lost. Selling with no record at all is another.

The past is very good at telling us what happened and very poor at telling us what will. Last season's sales describe last season's customers in last season's mood. Treat them as a forecast and you keep arriving where the market used to be.

But ignoring what came before is not boldness. It is volunteering to repeat other people's mistakes at your own expense. Most of the obstacles ahead of a new idea have already been hit by someone, and many of them left notes.

The useful position sits between the two. Learn what happened, and why. Then make a decision about a future the record cannot show, knowing clearly which parts of the plan are evidence and which parts are a bet.