The shop that opened first

Two opticians open on the same street in Alexandria within a month of each other. Same training, same frames, roughly the same prices.

The first happens to open the week a well-known shop two streets away closes for good, and its customers come looking for somewhere new. They walk in by the dozen. They come back for their children. They tell their sisters. By winter the shop has a name on the street, and the name brings more people, who bring more people.

The second opens a month later, to a quiet street. Nothing is wrong with him. He simply arrived after a rush he never knew existed.

Five years on, it will be easy to say the first optician is better at the job. The story will be told that way, by him and by everyone around him, and nobody will be lying on purpose. That is how early luck works. It does not stay luck. It turns into customers, then reputation, then the confidence and the money to improve, and by then it looks exactly like skill.

Some games are built to wash out luck over many rounds, so the better player wins in the end. Business, and life, are mostly not built that way. An early break keeps paying, and an early stumble keeps costing, long after either has anything to do with how good someone is.

That is unfair, and it is also wasteful. Every good optician who closes before his luck arrives is good work the street loses.

What we can do is refuse to confuse the two. Those who had the good week can say so. And those without one can plan for the long run, with enough savings, patience and small bets to stay open until the luck evens out, because staying in the game is what gives skill the time to show.