Following a trend means arriving late

If you are following a trend, you have already arrived late. That is not bad luck. It is simply what being early means.

Early is a place most people have not reached yet. The front only exists while it is mostly empty. Once it fills up, it is just the middle.

Picture a small plush toy sold in a sealed box, hanging from handbags all over Dubai for one season. A year later it reaches a shelf in Cairo, and a teenager saves for weeks to buy one. She gets the toy. She does not get the feeling of being early. That feeling belonged to the people who started it.

She did nothing wrong. Nobody reaches the front by following, because following means waiting until enough people are there for you to notice them.

The same is true for anything you choose, buy or sell. When you pick what to wear, stock or launch by looking at what is already popular, you are reading where people were, not where they are heading. That can still be a good choice. Just do not mistake it for being ahead.

Being early means being willing to stand somewhere nearly empty, before anyone tells you it is the place to be.

Once you can see the crowd, the front has already moved on.